26 February 2025, ANALYSIS: Greening the EU budget: why climate mainstreaming needs reform (co-authored with Kamil Sekut)
The EU’s climate mainstreaming framework suffers from design flaws and complexity, risks greenwashing, and does not detect harmful activities.
21 February 2025, NEWSLETTER FEATURE: How do the new EU fiscal rules protect public investment?
Greater fiscal adjustments linked to deeper investment cuts, while EU’s investment outlook is weak. A common EU fund with joint borrowing is needed.
30 January 2025, FIRST GLANCE: Updated assessment: Memo to the commissioner responsible for the European Union budget
The Commission's priorities are about right, but size, emergency funds, and investment sources remain unaddressed; performance budgeting must improve.
2024
28 December 2024, CHART OF THE YEAR on Telex.hu: Az EU-bővítés hatása az EU költségvetésére
Az EU bővítés nettó kedvezményezettek transzferét csökkentő hatása elenyésző lenne a 2014-2020-ról 2021-2023-ra bekövetkezett csökkenéshez képest.
12 December 2024, ANALYSIS: What enlargement could imply for the European Union’s budget (co-authored with Juan Mejino-López)
The entry of nine new countries into the EU would impact the EU budget modestly while boosting national revenues for current members
11 July 2024, ANALYSIS: Countries are still slow to follow European Union policy recommendations
Despite broad adherence to pandemic-related fiscal guidance, EU countries have not speeded up reform in difficult areas
6 June 2024, ANALYSIS: Twenty years of European east-west household income convergence
While average household income is lower than GDP per capita, the poor have especially benefitted from income gains in central and eastern EU members.
26 March 2024, FIRST GLANCE: The EU needs a methodology for including reform impacts in fiscal trajectories (co-authored with Lennard Welslau and Jeromin Zettelmeyer)
Such a methodology, and a governance mechanism for managing associated risks, must be in place before the new fiscal framework kickstarts in September.
21 March 2024, ANALYSIS: Emerging countries have replaced most of Russia’s lost trade with advanced economies (co-authored with Luca Léry Moffat and Conor McCaffrey)
Russian trade overall seems to have suffered little from sanctions; meanwhile, medicine and food trade continues with sanctioning countries.
15 March 2024, COLUMN in Le Monde: L’idée selon laquelle les performances économiques de l’Europe seraient inférieures à celles des Etats-Unis est erronée
L’économiste Zsolt Darvas met en garde, dans une tribune au « Monde », contre les biais statistiques qui orientent le discours sur un « décrochage » européen.
12 March 2024, COLUMN in EUobserver: Ukraine's accession is affordable — but corruption is the worry
Ukraine's EU membership would slightly raise the EU budget from 1.12% to 1.2% of GDP. Larger concerns include rule of law, corruption and democracy.
8 February 2024, ANALYSIS: Income inequality hardly changed during the COVID-19 pandemic
Contrary to expectations, there was no widespread increase in either within-country or global income inequality during the pandemic.
2023
12 December 2023, FIRST GLANCE: Bringing the reform of European Union fiscal rules to a successful close (co-authored with Jean Pisani-Ferry and Jeromin Zettelmeyer)
EU fiscal rules must not unnecessarily restrict green investment.
11 December 2023, ANALYSIS: The benefits of bringing the Western Balkans into the European Semester
Integrating the Western Balkan countries into the European Union’s European Semester process is both feasible and desirable.
26 October 2023, ANALYSIS: The European Union’s remarkable growth performance relative to the United States
The EU has outperformed the US on per-capita output growth; in terms of output per hour worked, some EU countries are as productive as the US.
4 May 2023, ANALYSIS: Fiscal rule legislative proposal: what has changed, what has not, what is unclear?
The proposed new fiscal rules constitute a major improvement from the current fiscal framework but missed an opportunity to foster green investment.
6 April 2023, ANALYSIS: The EU Recovery and Resilience Facility falls short against performance-based funding standards (co-authored with Lennard Welslau and Jeromin Zettelmeyer)
The rules and guidance underpinning EU economic recovery funds seek inputs and outputs, not results; this has led to uneven use of results indicators
25 March 2023, COLUMN in The Academic: The ‘Green Golden Rule’ for the Green Transition
Given the need to reduce large budget deficits, what are some strategies for increasing public climate spending?
23 March 2023, FIRST GLANCE: Banking turbulence is not a reason to pause monetary tightening
Despite calls for interest rate hikes to be paused, both the ECB and Federal Reserve raised rates- which was the right decision.
14 March 2023, ANALYSIS: Collective bargaining is associated with lower income inequality (co-authored Giulia Gotti Kamil Sekut)
There is a negative correlation between collective bargaining coverage and inequality, but more research is needed to understand why.
9 March 2023, ANALYSIS: Two crises, two continents: how the labour-market impacts have differed
The US economy was more resilient against the two recent global crises, while the EU did better in terms of jobs during and after the pandemic.
2022
24 December 2022, COLUMN in ISPI Dossier: Economy: Inflation peaking, recession looming?
In 2023 we might see positive economic surprises in Europe: better-than-expected growth and lower-than-expected inflation.
30 December 2022, CHART OF THE YEAR in Telex.hu: Az orosz behozatal és kivitel csökkenése a gazdaság gyengülésére utal
A külkereskedelmi adatok az orosz gazdaság jelentős visszaesését vetítik előre, gazdaságilag megnehezítve a háború folytatását az oroszok számára.
21 December 2022, COLUMN in Portfolio.hu: A szankciók hatására fokozatosan gyengül az orosz gazdaság
Romlott az orosz gazdaság termelési kapacitása, és a március óta csökkenő orosz energiahordozó eladási bevételek tovább fognak csökkenni.
13 December 2022, SHORT ARTICLE in ECA Journal: Five lessons from the Recovery and Resilience Facility for future crisis-response instruments
Key lessons can be drawn for designing future crisis response tools as regards their purpose, timeliness, redistribution, conditionality & evaluation.
19 October 2022, BLOG POST: The sometimes puzzling differences in transatlantic earnings growth (co-authored with Maria Savona)
Low-skill workers have seen faster wage growth than high-skill workers in many EU countries, contrary to the United States.
14 October 2022, BLOG POST: How European Union energy policies could mitigate the coming recession (co-authored with Marie Le Mouel, Simone Tagliapietra, Jeromin Zettelmeyer)
The European Union faces recession, but the way in which policymakers manage the energy crisis will determine its depth and duration.
22 September 2022, BLOG POST: Tackling inflation: learning from the European Central Bank's six lapses (co-authored with Catarina Martins)
While mistakes unduly constrained rate hikes, gradual tightening is the right approach along with a new instrument to address energy bottlenecks.
8 September 2022, BLOG POST: Russia’s huge trade surplus is not a sign of economic strength (co-authored with Catarina Martins)
Russia has recorded a record trade surplus, but more than half of its increase is due to the collapse of imports.
29 June 2022, BLOG POST: The implications for public debt of high inflation and monetary tightening
Expected increases in interest rates and reductions in real GDP growth rates will result in relatively small increases in public debt-to-GDP ratios.
22 June 2022, BLOG POST: Discretion lets Croatia in but leaves Bulgaria out of the euro area in 2023
Crucial decisions about whether a country can join the euro area depend on questionable discretionary decisions.
6 April 2022, BLOG POST: Bold European Union action is needed to support Ukrainian refugees
Hosting Ukrainian refugees could cost European Union countries in excess of €40 billion this year. A dedicated EU fund is needed to manage the burden.
8 March 2022, COLUMN in Voxeu: How to reconcile increased green public investment needs with fiscal consolidation (co-authored with Guntram B. Wolff)
A green golden rule would allow deficit-funded public green investments excluded from fiscal rules, with safeguards.
17 February 2022, BLOG POST: How has growth changed what countries get from the European recovery fund?
Growth forecast adjustments shift EU grants, with some nations getting 10% more and others 20% less, but faster growth outweighs lost recovery funds.
8 February 2022, BLOG POST: The puzzle of European Union recovery plan assessments
Identical European Commission assessments of countries' plans undermine trust and raise doubts about the effective use of recovery funds.
3 February 2022, BLOG POST: A European climate fund or a green golden rule: not as different as they seem
Spending via an EU climate fund or a green golden rule would lead to similar projects and be treated equally under the EU's fiscal framework.
2021
18 November 2021, BLOG POST: Including home-ownership costs in the inflation indicator is not just a technical issue (co-authored with Catarina Martins)
The ECB’s preferred method to include owner-occupied housing services in the inflation indicator would involve an asset price.
20 July 2021, BLOG POST: Will European Union recovery spending be enough to fill digital investment gaps? (co-authored with J. Scott Marcus and Alkiviadis Tzaras)
The recovery facility will boost digital transformation, but questions remain whether it will be sufficient to achieve Europe’s digital ambitions.
29 April 2021, BLOG POST: Setting Europe’s economic recovery in motion: a first look at national plans (co-authored with Simone Tagliapetra)
Plans for spending European Union recovery funds submitted by the four largest EU countries reflect rather different priorities.
4 March 2021, BLOG POST: The EU’s fiscal stance, its recovery fund, and how they relate to the fiscal rules (co-authored with Guntram Wolff)
Joint EU borrowing, excluded from national deficits, eases fiscal adjustments in southern/eastern Europe but not in western/northern Europe.
5 January 2021, BLOG POST: When the future changes the past: fiscal indicator revisions
The 2020 pandemic spurred a reassessment of past fiscal policies due to output gap and structural balance errors. Better fiscal rules are needed.
2020
3 December 2020, BLOG POST: COVID-19 has widened the income gap in Europe
Workers with low-educational levels suffered far worse than others in terms of COVID-19 related job losses during the first half of 2020 in the EU.
12 November 2020, BLOG POST: Next Generation EU payments across countries and years
How much cake does everyone actually get and at what speed?
24 September 2020, BLOG POST: Will European Union countries be able to absorb and spend well the bloc’s recovery funding?
The EU is raising funds for recovery, but slow absorption and spending struggles persist. Focus should be on meaningful projects, not just fund use.
20 August 2020, SHORT ARTICLE in Eastern Focus Quarterly: Relocating production from China to Central Europe? Not so fast!
Western Europe's imports from central Europe fell sharply, but imports from China rebounded by April 2020. CEE must boost knowledge-intensive sectors.
23 July 2020, BLOG POST: Having the cake, but slicing it differently: how is the grand EU recovery fund allocated?
The revised recovery fund allocation favours larger economies and considers COVID-19 impacts. Germany and France gain grants, others receive less.
17 June 2020, BLOG POST: The EU’s recovery fund proposals: crisis relief with massive redistribution
Some countries could receive up to 15% of GDP in grants, with all benefiting long-term. Loan benefits may surpass 1% of GDP for certain nations.
10 June 2020, BLOG POST: Three-quarters of Next Generation EU payments will have to wait until 2023
Less than a quarter of the €438 bn recovery grants will be spent in the next 2.5 years. Financial markets can help, but EU payments need frontloading.
29 May 2020, BLOG POST: An uncompromising budget
The EU's COVID response was weak until "Next Generation EU" was proposed. However, multiannual budget reforms are limited, missing an opportunity.
30 March 2020, BLOG POST: The fiscal consequences of the pandemic
A European solution is needed for the pandemic’s economic impact, including more ECB purchases, a larger ESM, and cost mutualization.
18 February 2020, BLOG POST: The EU’s poverty reduction efforts should not aim at the wrong target
The EU can't meet its 'poverty' targets, as the indicator measures income inequality, risking the neglect of those who are truly poor in Europe.
17 February 2020, BLOG POST: Recent euro-area house price increases are dissimilar to earlier housing booms (co-authored with Marta Domínguez-Jiménez and Guntram Wolff)
Housing markets are less driven by mortgage credit, and construction hasn’t grown, helping financial stability during a potential price correction.
23 January 2020, BLOG POST: How could net balances change in the next EU budget?
The gap between EU payments and spending matters when funds aren't for public goods or risk misuse. The budget proposal would cut net payments for CEE.
2019
16 December 2019, BLOG POST: How much will the UK contribute to the next seven-year EU budget?
I estimate the UK's net contribution to the 2021-2027 EU budget at €20 billion, based on key items in the October 2019 EU27-UK withdrawal agreement.
4 December 2019, BLOG POST: Who pays for the EU budget rebates and why?
EU budget revenue corrections have created anomalies. Reform should focus on European public goods and eliminate rebates, or make rebates transparent.
14 October 2019, BLOG POST: Cross-border, but not national, EU interregional development projects are associated with higher growth (co-authored with Jan Mazza and Catarina Midoes)
Cross-border EU cohesion projects boost growth, efficiency, synergies, and knowledge transfers, unlike purely national interregional initiatives.
8 October 2019, BLOG POST: Long term real interest rates fell below zero in all euro area countries
Negative real interest rates support fiscal sustainability and boost investment in infrastructure and the green transition.
1 October 2019, BLOG POST: Why structural balances should be scrapped from EU fiscal rules
A prominent DG ECFIN team defended the EU’s potential output methodology, but their responses seem questionable and overlook key flaws in the approach.
23 September 2019, BLOG POST: Questions to the economy commissioner-designates
Key issues include social fairness, EU advice implementation, fiscal rules, macroeconomic imbalances, and tools for the next economic downturn.
17 June 2019, BLOG POST: Uncertainty over output gap and structural-balance estimates remains elevated
Structural budget balance estimates by the Commission, IMF, OECD, and national governments widely differ and are subject to significant revisions.
3 June 2019, BLOG POST: A European atlas of economic success and failure (co-authored with Jan Mazza and Catarina Midoes)
Growth varied across EU regions, with successful ones in many countries. The worst performers are more concentrated, implying country-specific factors.
30 April 2019, BLOG POST: EU enlargement 15th anniversary: Upward steps on the income ladder
Since joining the EU 15 years ago, central Europeans' incomes grew faster than older members, but the poorest in some countries still saw no progress.
14 January 2019, BLOG POST: EU budget implications of a no-deal Brexit
We estimate the EU budget shortfall from a no-deal Brexit and the distribution of the burden across EU countries.
2018
6 December 2018, BLOG POST: ECB’s huge forecasting errors undermine credibility of current forecasts
In the past five years ECB forecasts have proven to be systematically incorrect: core inflation remained broadly stable at 1% despite the stubbornly predicted increase, while the unemployment rate fell faster than predicted. Such forecast errors, which are also inconsistent with each other, raise serious doubts about the reliability of the ECB’s current forecast of accelerating core inflation and necessitates a reflection on the inflation aim of the ECB.
9 October 2018, BLOG POST: Greece: What to expect after the bail-out
After being under the close scrutiny of three financial assistance programmes since May 2010, Greece has finally left the bail-out in August 2018. How different is the post-bail-out era from the preceding eight years? Will Greece be able to stand on its own? And how might the country improve its economic outlook? In this post, which summarises a presentation recently given at an Athens conference, the author answers these three questions.
7 October 2018, COLUMN in Fileleftheros: Πόσο …………..
13 September 2018, COLUMN in Voxeu: The economic case for an expenditure rule in Europe (co-authored with Philippe Martin and Xavier Ragot)
The EU's complex fiscal rules should be replaced with a simple rule capping annual expenditure growth, anchored by a clear debt target.
11 September 2018, BLOG POST: Should central European EU members join the euro zone?
Eurozone membership (or the use of a fixed exchange rate) was not a factor determining economic success in Central Europe. There were both good and bad macroeconomic performances in both the flexible and the fixed exchange rate regimes of Central European countries. The implication is that Central European “outs” could be economically successful both with and without the euro, yet the EU is not only about economic benefits.
5 July 2018, BLOG POST: EU income inequality decline: Views from an income shares perspective
Over the past decade, the income share of low earners has increased in the EU while that of top earners has slightly declined. Although the upward convergence of the impoverished central European population is impressive, the southern European poor have faced a major setback while the southern European rich have hardly suffered.
25 May 2018, BLOG POST: The Commission’s proposal for the next MFF: A glass half-full (co-authored with Grégory Claeys)
The Commission’s proposal for the next Multiannual Financial Framework provides a good basis for subsequent negotiations and includes a number of bold suggestions. But it has a number of deficiencies and some of the proposed tools are conceptually weak. We make proposals as to how to improve them.
4 May 2018, BLOG POST: How large is the proposed decline in EU agricultural and cohesion spending? (co-authored with Nicolas Moës)
Cohesion spending is proposed by the Commission to increase by 6% in the next MFF, but inflation is expected to reduce the real value of such spending by 7%. The gradual convergence of the least developed regions to the EU average reduces the need for cohesion spending. Common agricultural spending is proposed to be cut by 4%, while if we consider inflation too, the reduction in real value is 15%.
30 April 2018, BLOG POST: European income inequality begins to fall once again
Following almost a decade of relative stability, income inequality within the EU recorded a sizeable decline in 2016, reaching its lowest value since 1989. The fall of both within- and between-country inequality contributed to the 2016 reduction in overall EU inequality.
19 April 2018, BLOG POST: Global income inequality is declining – largely thanks to China and India
Income inequality among citizens of 146 continues to fall, though at a somewhat reduced pace, according to the updated Bruegel dataset. Income convergence of China and India accounts for the bulk of the decline in global income inequality from 1988-2015.
26 March 2018, BLOG POST: Greece must capitalise on its growth momentum
Better-than-expected growth performance reflects the underlying positive changes in the Greek economy – but net investment is in fact negative, while Greece has various institutional weaknesses. Further improvements must be made regarding Greece’s attractiveness to foreign direct investment. A new (at least precautionary) financial assistance programme would improve trust in continued reforms and also address eventual public debt financing difficulties.
23 February 2018, BLOG POST: Beyond border control, migrant integration policies must be revived
Border control and burden-sharing of refugees is just one aspect of immigration policies. Greater financial inclusion and the tailoring of regulations to refugees' specific needs would benefit not only the refugees themselves, but also native citizens.
6 February 2018, BLOG POST: What is the financial balance of EU membership for central Europe?
EU membership led to major financial and economic advantages to central European Member States, partly by encouraging foreign investment. Widespread foreign ownership of capital brought many benefits but also resulted in large profits. Since central European governments are doing their utmost to attract even more foreign capital, foreign profit is set to increase further.
25 January 2018, BLOG POST: The ever-rising labour shortages in Europe (co-authored with Inês Gonçalves Raposo)
Historically high labour shortages in most central-eastern and north-western EU countries suggest that the immigration of central Europeans to north-west EU countries did not take away jobs from local workers on a significant scale. But as labour shortages now exceed their pre-crisis peak, several urgent measures must be considered to help to combat the problem.
2017
19 December 2017, BLOG POST: Optimistic UK business confidence indicators predict smooth Brexit
UK business confidence indicators hardly fell after the Brexit vote in 2016 and have been increasing steadily since. The most likely reason is an expectation of smooth Brexit deal, especially for industry, while there is more uncertainty for services.
13 December 2017, BLOG POST: The challenge of fostering financial inclusion of refugees
Creation of a European identification for refugees and a pan-European registry would encourage better financial inclusion, along with clear guidelines about financial regulation and public-private partnerships.
12 December 2017, BLOG POST: Support for intra-EU mobility of people is on the rise
Europeans’ enthusiasm for immigration from other EU countries is steadily increasing –two-thirds of the EU population, on average, now support it.
6 December 2017, BLOG POST: How the EU has become an immigration area
Natural change of EU28 population (the balance of live births and deaths) has fallen from high positive values in the 1960s to essentially zero recently, while the previous close-to-zero net immigration has turned positive and, since the early 1990s, become a more important source of population growth than natural increase.
1 December 2017, BLOG POST: Why US investors earn more on their foreign assets than Germans
The United States benefits from large yields on its foreign assets relative to foreign liabilities, while in most continental European countries foreign assets and liabilities yield almost the same. Risk factors can explain only a small part of this difference; tax, intellectual property and financial sophistication issues might contribute to the high yields on US foreign assets.
18 October 2017, BLOG POST: Revision of the Posted Workers Directive misses the point
The Commission’s proposed revision of the Posted Workers Directive has been approved by the European Parliament’s Employment Committee, which welcomes the arrival of “equal pay for equal work”. But the revision will have little impact, and was largely unnecessary. Instead we should focus on the fight against bogus self-employment, social security fraud and undeclared work.
28 September 2017, BLOG POST: Employment in Europe and the US: the EU’s remarkable strength
The common narrative that the US labour market outperforms the EU is not as trustworthy as overall unemployment figures imply. There is a complex interaction between job creation, labour force participation and unemployment. Jobseekers leaving the labour market altogether was an important factor behind the reduction in US unemployment, while Europe’s job growth has been accompanied by increased labour force participation.
14 June 2017, BLOG POST: Is Greece’s labour market bouncing back?
After rapid increases in unemployment and large wage reductions, Greece’s labour market is showing signs of recovery. Certain sectors of the economy are showing strong employment growth, which could hint at a broader economic recovery.
22 May 2017, BLOG POST: Debt relief or a fourth financial assistance programme for Greece?
The Eurogroup faces a difficult choice on Greece — implementing a debt reduction plan drastic enough to make a return to market borrowing possible, or agreeing to a fourth financial assistance programme and continuing to fund Greece at the preferential lending rate.
4 May 2017, BLOG POST: Europeans rediscover enthusiasm for globalisation (co-authored with Uuriintuya Batsaikhan)
The general political mood on both sides of the Atlantic seems to suggest declining public support for globalisation, but people in the EU increasingly see globalisation as an opportunity for economic growth. This shift in public opinion coincides with improved economic conditions.
30 March 2017, BLOG POST: Brexit bill negotiators must answer these 12 questions (co-authored with Konstantinos Efstathiou and Inês Goncalves Raposo)
Is Brexit a divorce, or is the UK leaving a club? This is the first question to answer as negotatiors discuss the key aspects of the EU-UK financial settlement. The authors present various scenarios, and find that the UK could be expected to pay between €25.4 billion and €65.1 billion. But the final cost can only be calculated after extensive political negotiations.
30 March 2017, BLOG POST: The UK’s Brexit bill: what are the possible liabilities? (co-authored with Konstantinos Efstathiou and Inês Goncalves Raposo)
The EU-UK financial settlement will be a complex part of the Brexit negotiations. Here the authors estimate that at end-2018 the EU will have outstanding commitments and liabilities totalling €724bn. Most of these relate to spending after the UK’s likely departure date, but are tied to commitments made during the UK’s EU membership.
24 March 2017, BLOG POST: European spring – Trust in the EU and democracy is recovering (co-authored with Uuriintuya Batsaikhan)
Trust in the EU and satisfaction with democracy are returning in southern European countries, where citizens’ confidence in European institutions was dented during the crisis years.
17 February 2017, BLOG POST: The Brexit bill: uncertainties in the estimate of EU pension and sickness insurance liabilities (co-authored with Konstantinos Efstathiou and Inês Goncalves Raposo)
Pension and sickness insurance liabilities for EU staff could be an especially contentious part of negotiations on an EU-UK financial settlement: the “Brexit bill”. This post looks behind the calculation of the alleged cost of pension benefits and concludes that it may be less than half of what it seems.
14 February 2017, BLOG POST: The UK’s Brexit bill: could EU assets partially offset liabilities? (co-authored with Konstantinos Efstathiou and Inês Goncalves Raposo)
The ‘Brexit bill’ is likely to be one of the most contentious aspects of the upcoming negotiations. But estimates so far focus largely on the EU costs and liabilities that the UK will have to buy its way out of. What about the EU’s assets? The UK will surely get a share of those, and they could total €153.7bn.
8 February 2017, BLOG POST: Questionable immigration claims in the Brexit white paper
The UK government's white paper on Brexit suggested that the EU's "free movement of people" has made it impossible to control immigration. This seems to rest on an assumption that EU citizens can "move and reside freely" in any member state. Zsolt Darvas finds these arguments problematic, and points out that it is difficult to infer public opinion about immigration from the referendum result.
2016
13 December 2016, BLOG POST: Explaining inequality
Is technological progress behind growing income inequality? No, according to Zsolt Darvas, who argues that redistribution and the regulation of certain professions were more important factors.
23 November 2016, BLOG POST: Income inequality has been falling in the EU
The properly measured EU-wide Gini coefficient of disposable income inequality shows that inequality in the EU as whole declined in 1994-2008, after which it remained broadly stable. However, within the EU, there are large differences in income inequality which require policy action.
9 November 2016, BLOG POST: Income inequality boosted Trump vote (co-authored with Konstantinos Efstathiou)
Our early econometric analysis shows that Donald Trump performed more strongly in states with higher income inequality. He also did better in states with a higher share of less-educated, older, US-born and non-Hispanic voters.
19 July 2016, BLOG POST: Single market access from outside the EU: three key prerequisites
In relative terms, Norway’s current net financial contribution to the EU is similar to the UK’s. Switzerland and Liechtenstein pay surprisingly little, while Iceland is a net beneficiary. Relative to their population, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein received about twice as large an inflow of EU immigrants as the UK. These countries also have to adopt the vast majority of EU regulation to gain access to the single market.
13 July 2016, BLOG POST: Brexit vote boosts case for inclusive growth
In the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum, income inequality and poverty boosted ‘leave’ votes, in addition to geographical differences and larger shares of uneducated and older people in UK regions, according to my regression analysis. The actual presence of immigrants did not have a significant effect on the results. Disadvantaged people voted in smaller proportions. Turnout was also low among the young and residents of Scotland, Northern Ireland and London, who were more likely to vote ‘remain’.
30 June 2016, BLOG POST: No Lehman moment on currency markets after Brexit vote
While the pound sterling has lost a lot of its value right after the Brexit vote, from a historical perspective neither the fall of the exchange rate, nor its current level, is unprecedented. The situation is not as severe as it was in the aftermath the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
15 June 2016, BLOG POST: Implementation of European Semester recommendations worsens further (co-authored with Alvaro Leandro)
Economic policy coordination in the EU hardly works: the implementation of economic policy recommendations made in the context of the European Semester was modest in 2011, and has deteriorated in each year since then.
8 June 2016, BLOG POST: What is the age profile of UK immigrants?
Most immigrants to the UK were aged 20–30 and employed. A large-scale job loss for UK citizens is unlikely with the UK jobless rate near a record low.
7 May 2016, BLOG POST: Is Greek public debt unsustainable? (co-authored with Pia Hüttl)
Greek public debt does not look sustainable if the country has to return to market borrowing at the end of the third bail-out programme, but could be sustainable if preferential ESM funding continues in the long-term. Our advice is to offer hope for Greece in the form of delayed fiscal adjustment toward a target of 2.5% of GDP primary balance and adopt various measures to ease the debt burden, for the benefit of both Greece and its official lenders.
12 April 2016, BLOG POST: How to reform EU fiscal rules (co-authored with Grégory Claeys and Álvaro Lenadro)
The current inefficient European fiscal framework should be replaced with a system based on rules that are more conducive to the two objectives of public debt sustainability and fiscal stabilisation.
7 April 2016, BLOG POST: The structural budget balance limbo
A key indicator in the EU’s fiscal framework is the structural budget balance, but estimates of the indicator by the European Commission, IMF and OECD are revised a lot from one year to the next, sparking concerns among some EU finance ministers.
7 March 2016, BLOG POST: “Social dumping” and posted workers: a new clash within the EU (co-authored with Elena Vaccarino)
European companies often post employees to another EU country to work there temporarily. These ‘posted workers’ must be paid at least the minimum wage of the host country, yet their wages can be lower than the wages of local workers. Now proposals for ‘the same pay for the same work at the same place’ are creating new clashes between EU countries.
21 January 2016, BLOG POST: Oil prices and inflation expectations (co-authored with Pia Hüttl)
Low oil prices reduce market-based inflation expectations for 5-6 years, which is oddly long. Such expectations need cautious assessment.
12 January 2016, BLOG POST: Has ECB QE lifted inflation?
Euro-area inflation stayed near zero since 2015's QE, but core inflation and its adjusted version rose steadily, indicating QE's effectiveness.
2015
26 November 2015, BLOG POST: Real exchange rates in conflict zones
Several conflicted countries stabilised nominal exchange rates, while crashes in Syria, Ukraine, and Russia were partly offset by high inflation.
18 November 2015, BLOG POST: Naughty students or the wrong school: why is the European Semester proving ineffective? (co-authored with Alvaro Leandro)
The EU's economic policy coordination struggles as national policymakers prioritize their own interests, often differing widely across member states.
9 July 2015, BLOG POST: Waiting for G-Day
Greece's future is at a crossroads: a new bailout or Grexit. An agreement is likely, but failure could lead to economic collapse and EU instability.
6 July 2015, BLOG POST: Choices after the Greferendum (co-authored with Guntram B. Wolff)
After the referendum, options include Grexit, a new financial aid programme, or default with bank support, each with significant risks and challenges.
28 June 2015, BLOG POST: A democratic Europe should allow Greek people to decide on their future
Greek people will either mandate their government to continue the financial programme or vote for uncertainty and possible chaos.
16 June 2015, CONFERENCE PAPER: Is Greece Destined to Grow?
Yes, if reforms continue and a comprehensive and credible agreement is reached with the creditors.
20 May 2015, BLOG POST: Mind the gap (and its revision)!
Revisions to estimated output gaps are large, and the size of these revisions is related to the variability of the current account balance.
17 April 2015, BLOG POST: Will Greece run out of cash?
An accident can happen, but a country with substantial financial assets is unlikely to default.
2 April 2015, BLOG POST: Money growth in the euro area is speeding up
The acceleration of Divisia money growth signals an improving economic outlook.
25 February 2015, BLOG POST: Should other Eurozone programme countries worry about a reduced Greek primary surplus target?
Greek fiscal adjustment remains high despite potential target reduction, while other programme countries fell short of their own fiscal targets.
24 February 2015, COLUMN in Le Soir: Grèce: Les négociations difficiles vont débuter maintenant
L’Eurogroupe a formellement accepté l’extension du programme d’assistance internationale à la Grèce. Analyse.
19 February 2015, COLUMN in Government Gazette and Olympia: Europe needs a lasting solution for the Greek problem
No sustainable market borrowing leaves tough choices; lasting solutions are crucial to avoid recurring crises and prolonged economic uncertainty.
11 February 2015, BLOG POST: The maths behind an amended Greek plan
Though Varoufakis’s plan faced resistance, media hint at a potential compromise. This post explores numerical simulations of a possible plan.
3 February 2015, BLOG POST: A major step towards a Greek compromise
European leaders must consider Minister Varoufakis's draft plan, while Greece should set aside reservations to pursue a new ESM programme.
23 January 2015, SHORT ARTICLE in ISPI Dossier: Greek choices after the elections
A comprehensive deal with euro-partners is key to easing Greece's debt burden and social pain while avoiding euro exit and economic collapse.
19 January 2015, BLOG POST: Real exchange rates after the Swiss tsunami
The Swiss National Bank's surprise removal of the 1.2 franc/euro floor shocked currency markets. We document the key changes.
16 January 2015, BLOG POST: Why a Grexit is more costly for Germany than a default inside the euro area (co-authored with Pia Hüttl)
Direct losses for Germany would be much larger if Greece was to exit the euro.
9 January 2015, BLOG POST: How to reduce the Greek debt burden? (co-authored with Pia Hüttl)
The Eurogroup should pursue debt relief if a comprehensive deal on fiscal, structural, and economic policies is reached with Greece's new government.
8 January 2015, COLUMN in Napigazdaság: Sok egykori kommunista országban álom maradt a konvergencia
A korábbi kommunista országok felében az egy főre eső GDP nem került közelebb a legfejlettebb EU-tagállamok átlagához az elmúlt 25 évben.
6 January 2015, BLOG POST: The convergence dream 25 years on
The fall of communism opened new opportunities, but only half of the former communist countries economically converged with the West from 1989 to 2014.
2014
17 December 2014, BLOG POST: Licht- und Schattenseiten einer Gemeinsamen Arbeitslosenversicherung
Die Europäische Arbeitslosen-Versicherung könnte Arbeitsmärkte stabilisieren, aber sie erfordert langfristige Reformen und ist keine schnelle Lösung für Arbeitslosigkeit.
5 December 2014, BLOG POST: Central bank rates deep in shadow
Shadow rate calculations suggest that the ECB’s policy stance remains significantly tighter than the monetary policy stance in the US and the UK.
25 November 2014, BLOG POST: Money matters in the euro area
Calculations using a new dataset on euro-area Divisia money suggest that money shocks affect the euro-area economy.
26 September 2014, BLOG POST: The European Investment Bank should invest more, not less
The EIB played a counter-cyclical role during the crisis but now plans to cut investments despite growing calls for increased public investment.
18 July 2028, BLOG POST: Towards a European unemployment insurance? (co-authored with Gregory Claeys and Guntram B. Wolff)
The European Unemployment Insurance could offer stability but requires political consent, addressing moral hazards, and long-term labour market reform.
18 June 2014, BLOG POST: Despite lower yields, euro-periphery is not yet out of the woods (co-authored with Pia Hüttl)
The projected debt-to-GDP decline needs cautious assessment due to uncertainty and vulnerability to growth, primary balance, and interest rate shocks.
5 June 2014, BLOG POST: ECB shows activism but falls short of true QE (co-authored with Gregory Claeys and Guntram B. Wolff)
The ECB's package is welcome, but more aggressive QE would have been warranted, and further measures will likely be needed to restore 2% inflation.
5 June 2014, BLOG POST: Negative ECB deposit rate: But what next? (co-authored with Pia Hüttl)
The impacts of an expected negative ECB deposit rate would be minimal; the key question is whether asset purchases will finally be announced.
22 May 2013, COLUMN in Le Soir: Les effets pervers de la gestion de la crise
La crise a révélé les failles de l'UE : relance fiscale, union bancaire, mais faible croissance, chômage élevé, dettes accrues et union monétaire incomplète.
12 May 2014, COLUMN in Napigazdaság: Közép-európai fővárosok Bécs előtt
Az EU-csatlakozás óta Varsó, Pozsony és Prága megelőzte Bécset az egy főre jutó GDP-ben, de a régiók közti különbségek nőttek.
6 May 2014, BLOG POST: Addressing weak inflation: The ECB’s shopping list (co-authored with Grégory Claeys, Silvia Merler and Guntram B. Wolff)
A negative ECB deposit rate and long-term refinancing likely have limited impact; an asset purchase program remains the best option to boost inflation.
1 May 2014, BLOG POST: 10 years EU enlargement anniversary: Waltzing past Vienna
Since EU accession, Warsaw, Bratislava, and Prague surpassed Vienna in GDP per capita, others narrowed the gap, but regional disparities widened.
7 April 2014, BLOG POST: Ukraine's currency crash
Ukraine’s currency lost nearly a third of its value in four months, threatening the country’s financial system, economy, and people's livelihoods.
3 April 2014, BLOG POST: Taylor-rule interest rates for euro area countries: diversity remains
Despite low inflation, euro-area interest rate recommendations rose on average, hiding vast country differences and complicating the ECB's task.
6 February 2014, BLOG POST: In sickness and in health: protecting and supporting public investment in Europe
Crisis-induced EU public investment cuts hurt growth, while other nations raised investment. A new fiscal framework and EU investment plan are needed.
8 January 2014, BLOG POST: Export and unit labour cost adjustment: close association in EU15
Exports strongly correlate with ULC-based REER in the EU. Spain aligns with trends, while Greece shows weak exports despite REER depreciation.
2013
7 November 2013, BLOG POST: The German trade surplus may widen with the euro-area recovery
Germany's trade surplus may grow with euro-area recovery, driven by rising exports and weak domestic demand unless domestic demand improves.
12 October 2013, BLOG POST: Mind the gap! And the way structural budget balances are calculated
Structural balance estimates are flawed due to unreliable potential output calculations, NAWRU issues, & TFP assumptions, impacting EU fiscal policies.
11 October 2013, BLOG POST: Which role should the ECB give up? (co-authored with Silvia Merler)
The ECB should relinquish its role in financial assistance programmes to avoid conflicts of interest, and hope that the OMT will never be used.
30 September 2013, BLOG POST: Insufficient home-assignments from the European Semester
Euro-area recommendations lack country-specific actions, overlook demand, fail to clarify fiscal stance, and propose timid financial sector reforms.
18 September 2013, BLOG POST: -15% to +4%: Taylor-rule interest rates for euro area countries (co-authored with Silvia Merler)
The large differences in interest rate prescriptions demand improved cross-country adjustment, a stronger banking union, and a shared fiscal capacity.
23 August 2013, BLOG POST: Good news from Cyprus: Q2 contraction only 1.4 percent
Cyprus’s contraction slowed from the first to the second quarter, defying pessimistic forecasts after its banking crisis.
21 August 2013, BLOG POST: Yields on the rise
Rising bond yields, driven by QE tapering talks, may normalise globally but pose risks for high-debt euro-area nations with weak growth.
12 August 2013, BLOG POST: Recent real effective exchange rate movements (summer 2013 database update)
Yen depreciation since 2012 corrected past gains, China's renminbi continues to rise, while euro appreciation complicates eurozone rebalancing efforts.
7 June 2013, BLOG POST: Where does the youth exodus come from?
Youth migration in Europe rose during the crisis, with Baltics losing 20-25% of young people. Southern EU saw less mobility despite high unemployment.
24 May 2013, BLOG POST: Europa droht eine verlorene Dekade
Hohe Arbeitslosigkeit, schwache Banken, geringe Investitionen und hohe Verschuldung gefährden langfristiges Wachstum ohne rasche Maßnahmen.
22 May 2013, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: A rövid távú problémák és a hosszú távú növekedés
Magas munkanélküliség, gyenge bankok, alacsony befektetések és innováció, és magas adósság fenyegetik a hosszú távú növekedést gyors intézkedések nélkül.
16 May 2013, BLOG POST: The harmful impact of short-term troubles on long-term growth
High unemployment, weak banks, low investment, low innovation and high private debt, risk undermining long-term growth without urgent policy actions.
16 April 2013, BLOG POST: New IMF growth forecasts: EU revised downward, once again
The IMF's new World Economic Outlook revised the euro area's outlook downward once again, but this was not the case for the U.S. and Japan.
15 April 2013, BLOG POST: Europe’s banks need to be recapitalised – now (co-authored with Jean Pisani-Ferry and Guntram B. Wolff)
Comprehensive action is needed to break the mutually reinforcing links between low productivity, slow deleveraging, weak banks and distorted prices.
2 April 2013, COLUMN in The Times: Time for us to bank on a new Marshall Plan
The Cyprus crisis highlights the need for a banking union, deposit insurance, and a Marshall Plan-style investment program to revive southern Europe.
28 March 2013, BLOG POST: Large banks relative to GDP: is there a risk beyond Cyprus?
Other EU countries with large bank balance sheets face no Cyprus-like risk, as Cyprus's crisis stemmed from massive banking losses.
27 March 2013, BLOG POST: It is not yet too late to drop the idea of capital controls in Cyprus (co-authored with Guntram Wolff)
Introducing capital controls in Cyprus might undermine trust, violate EU free movement principles, and set a harmful precedent for the eurozone.
25 March 2013, BLOG POST: The new Cyprus deal: victory of common sense
The deal protects insured deposits, bails in shareholders & bondholders, avoids taxpayer costs, adopts a bank resolution tool, yet crisis is not over.
24 March 2013, BLOG POST: What comes after finance in Cyprus?
Cyprus's financial sector will shrink post-crisis. Manufacturing prospects are limited. Growth may rely on market services and potential gas reserves.
22 March 2013, BLOG POST: Options for Cyprus
Options include securing an EU deal, seeking Russian support, or risking a chaotic ‘Cyprexit’, which could destabilize the euro area and harm Cypriots.
21 March 2013, BLOG POST: No contagion from Cyprus so far
The Cyprus drama hasn’t destabilised the euro area yet, despite talks of a potential ‘Cyprexit’, i.e. Cyprus exiting the euro area.
20 March 2013, COLUMN in Expansión: Dramatic days ahead in Cyprus
The Cypriot parliament must reverse its deposit levy rejection, but exempt small deposits, and act fast to secure a deal & prevent financial meltdown.
18 March 2013, BLOG POST: Cyprus deal: the right intentions but major flaws
Cyprus's bank rescue plan levies a deposit wealth tax with good intentions, but unfairly involves smaller depositors and excludes senior bondholders.
14 March 2013, BLOG POST: To bail-in, or not to bail-in: that is the question (now for Cyprus)
Cyprus's bank rescue debate centres on bailing-in depositors or burdening taxpayers, with Denmark's successful bail-in of creditors offering lessons.
1 March 2013, BLOG POST: A new direction for euro-area macro policies
Euro-area macro policies require a shift: fiscal expansion in stronger economies, gradual consolidation in weaker ones, and monetary easing by the ECB.
28 February 2013, SHORT ARTICLE in World Policy Journal: The Euro Crisis: Mission Accomplished?
The euro crisis has eased since 2012, but southern eurozone nations still face high debt, weak growth, and unemployment, requiring significant reforms.
25 February 2013, BLOG POST: The implications of the weakening yen
The yen's depreciation reflects Japan's policy shift under Abe and a new 2% inflation target, but concerns about the policy mix’s effectiveness grow.
25 January 2013, BLOG POST: Yen at war
Japan's monetary easing sharply weakened the yen, yet its real exchange rate, relative to its historical average, is similar to that of its peers.
9 January 2013, BLOG POST: The year of Ireland?
Ireland's return to market funding depends on sustained growth and resolving the heavy burden of promissory notes from the banking crisis.
2012
12 December 2012, BLOG POST: Real exchange rate adjustments around the globe
The crisis's asymmetric impact on advanced and emerging economies and their different outlooks highlight the need for exchange rate adjustments.
30 November 2012, BLOG POST: Updated monthly real effective exchange rates for 153 countries and the euro area (chart of the week)
The updated and extended dataset allows for the analysis of real exchange rate developments in 153 countries and the euro area.
27 November 2012, BLOG POST: Greek glass: half-empty or half-full?
One reading of the Greek deal suggests it is insufficient; another highlights EU's determination to keep Greece in the euro area despite challenges.
21 November 2012, COLUMN in Financial Times: Debt should be at heart of Greece’s deal
EU ministers didn’t agree on Greece's debt strategy. A credible plan needs debt relief, zero-interest loans, and GDP-indexed loans to avoid euro exit.
15 November 2012, BLOG POST: The Greek debt trap: missing the wrong target
The Greek debt strategy must target a 100% GDP ratio by 2020 with zero-interest loans and GDP-indexed debt to restore trust and avoid euro exit risks.
9 November 2012, BLOG POST: Filling Europe’s bottomless pit
Greece’s austerity cuts won't close its budget gap. A sustainable solution requires zero-interest loans until 2020 and debt indexed to GDP growth.
25 October 2012, BLOG POST: The real test of the euro (chart of the week)
Southern Europe's recession threatens the euro’s stability. Recovery needs reforms, fiscal balance, debt restructuring, and investment.
15 October 2012, COLUMN in Expansión: El campo de minas de España y la bomba atómica de Grecia
La presión del mercado ha disminuido, pero persisten dos riesgos: el retraso del rescate de España y la profundización de la recesión en Grecia, que amenaza la estabilidad del euro.
10 October 2012, BLOG POST: The ECB’s power over Spanish and Italian bond yields (chart of the week)
The ECB notably influences Spanish and Italian bond yields through announcements, but impacts are short-lived without broader euro-crisis solutions.
9 October 2012, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Az Európai Központi Bank varázspálcája
Az EKB új államkötvény-vásárlási programja csökkentette a spanyol és olasz hozamokat, de a válság megoldásához dél-európai növekedés kell.
8 October 2012, BLOG POST: The Spanish minefield and the Gretomic bomb have not yet been inactivated
Market pressure has eased, but two risks loom: Spain’s bailout delay and Greece’s deepening recession, threatening the euro’s stability.
1 October 2012, EDITORIAL in Intereconomics: The ECB’s magic wand
The ECB's OMT programme curbed soaring bond yields without intervention. Most criticisms rest on weak grounds, but the OMT's limits are clear.
5 September 2012, COLUMN in Voxeu: The limits of a purely intra-euro rebalancing strategy
Eurozone rebalancing needs a weaker euro, supported by looser ECB monetary policy, already warranted by the ongoing recessionary environment.
2 August 2012, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Közép-Európa a viharban
Közép-Európa gazdasága vegyes volt: Lengyelország jól teljesített; más országok visszaestek. Magyarország munkaerőpiaca jó, de termelékenysége gyenge.
25 July 2012, CLOUMN in La Tribune (English version): Firefighting has limits
Efforts to address the euro's economic and governance crises have focused on alleviating acute market pressures, lacking a strategic long-term vision.
24 July 2012, CLOUMN in La Tribune: Zone euro : la lutte contre l'incendie a des limites
Les efforts visant à résoudre les crises économiques et de gouvernance de l’euro se sont concentrés sur l’atténuation des fortes pressions du marché, sans vision stratégique à long terme.
20 July 2012, COLUMN in GE for CE: Weathering the storm in Central Europe
Pre-crisis vulnerabilities and crisis policies shaped economic and labour market outcomes in Central Europe, with Poland outperforming others.
23 July 2012, COLUMN in Gazeta Wyborcza: Polska liderem w Europie
Na wzburzonym morzu kryzysu najlepiej radzi sobie nasza gospodarka. Za nami są m.in. Szwecja, Czechy, Słowacja i Litwa. Dlaczego odnieśliśmy sukces?
17 July 2012, BLOG POST: Are wages too high in the French automobile industry?
French labour productivity in the auto industry stagnated after 2000, while wages rose, highlighting a competitiveness issue.
15 July 2012, BLOG POST: Devaluation and internal adjustment of the real exchange rate
Iceland's devaluation, capital controls, and fiscal reforms led to a smaller employment drop than euro-area members who used internal devaluation.
6 July 2012, COLUMN in Voxeu: Internal adjustment of the real exchange rate: Does it work?
Ireland, Spain, Latvia, and Lithuania restored competitiveness through productivity gains and wage cuts, but faced significant job losses.
25 June 2012, BLOG POST: On the efficacy of internal devaluations: answers to the questions of Kevin O’Rourke
This post explores Irish real exchange rate adjustments, the role of agriculture, and discrepancies in manufacturing value added vs. gross production.
25 June 2012, BLOG POST: Europa muss Griechenland eine Zukunft bieten
Europa muss Griechenland eine Zukunft bieten, indem es das Hilfsprogramm neu verhandelt, Investitionen ermöglicht und die Schuldenlast realistisch reduziert.
20 June 2012, BLOG POST: Greece after the elections
The Greek elections eased immediate exit risks, but Greece's economic outlook, high debt, and need for reforms still pose long-term challenges for the eurozone.
14 June 2012, COLUMN in O Globo: A Europa e a eleição na Grécia
A sobrevivência do euro depende de um governo grego disposto a cooperar, um programa de apoio ao crescimento e uma solução para a dívida do país.
13 June 2012, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Kilábalást kínálni Görögországnak a választások után
Az euró fennmaradhat, de együttműködő görög kormányra, növekedési támogatásra és adósságrendezésre van szüksége. Az eurózóna hibáit is orvosolni kell.
8 June 2012, COLUMN in ekathimerini: Europe must offer Greece a post-election prospect
The euro might survive, but Greece needs a cooperative government, growth support, and debt resolution. Eurozone flaws must also be addressed.
8 June 2012, BLOG POST: Intra-euro rebalancing has started (chart of the week)
Intra-euro rebalancing has begun, with Spain's trade deficit and Germany's euro-area surplus shrinking, while Germany's non-EU surplus grows.
22 May 2012, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Mennyire hatásos a magyar monetáris politika?
A magyar monetáris politika hatása a GDP-re fele akkora, mint a lengyelé, és harmadakkora, mint az euróövezeti; ez az euró bevezetését indokolja.
26 April 2012, BLOG POST: The new Dutch disease
The new Dutch disease arises from the debate over fiscal consolidation in the Netherlands, where delay makes sense but undermines EU fiscal rules.
26 April 2012, BLOG POST: Hungary is no Turkey
The Commission agreed to start financial aid talks with Hungary, responding to problems elsewhere in the EU and Hungary's strong incentives to comply.
18 April 2012, BLOG POST: Competitiveness adjustment in euro-area periphery (chart of the week)
Competitiveness adjustments in Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Portugal show ULC-REER gains; challenges remain with employment losses and wage rigidity.
16 March 2012, BLOG POST: World wide rates
Our new dataset includes trade-weighted real effective exchange rates for 178 countries, many more than in any other publicly available database.
24 February 2012, BLOG POST: Will cohesion fund disbursement be suspended for Hungary?
Hungary's financial aid talks will likely ensure a compliant fiscal path, making cohesion fund suspension unlikely.
14 February 2012, BLOG POST: The Greek tragedy: what next?
Private creditors and the ECB should face haircuts on Greek bonds, which would not significantly harm the rest of the euro area.
2 February 2012, BLOG POST: Prospects for the yen carry trade (co-authored with Haesik Park)
The historically high yen carry trade positions, fuelled by interest rate gaps and risk appetite, may unwind and amplify market volatility.
27 January 2012, BLOG POST: Weathering the storm: differences in crisis response in the EU and Korea
Korea's swift recovery post-2008 contrasts with the EU's slow rebound due to smaller fiscal stimulus, limited euro depreciation, and the euro crisis.
15 January 2012, COLUMN in elEconomista: Las 10 raíces de la crisis de euro
La crisis tiene su origen en problemas profundamente arraigados, como reglas fiscales fallidas, desequilibrios estructurales, falta de herramientas para resolver crisis y problemas de gobernanza.
14 January 2012, COLUMN in Public Service Europe: Will the US dollar be dethroned as the global currency?
The dollar's dominance enables US fiscal leniency, but shifting global dynamics and euro-reforms could foster a multipolar currency system over time.
2011
29 December 2011, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Élet a bankválság után
Izland, Írország és Lettország súlyos bankválsággal szembesült, de eltérő mértékben szenvedtek, melyre a gazdaságpolitika is hatással volt.
19 December 2011, COLUMN in Trend.sk: Prežije euro rok 2012?
Ak sa veci úplne pokazia, potopíme euro v katastrofálnej finančnej kríze alebo presadíme radikálne zmeny pre jeho lepšie fungovanie
10 December 2011, SHORT ARTICLE in CESIFo Forum 4/2011: The ten roots of the euro crisis
The crisis stems from deep-rooted issues, like failed fiscal rules, structural imbalances, lack of crisis resolution tools, and governance problems.
18 November 2011, COLUMN in Trend (English version): Will the euro survive 2012?
In my view the euro will survive, and the crisis will even result in highly beneficial governance changes, but the risk of a disorderly outcome grew.
19 September 2011, COLUMN in Világgazdaság (English version): An alternative to the Hungarian mortgage loan repayment proposal
Replacing final repayment at a fixed exchange rate with a retroactive reference interest rate would be fairer, more legal, and better for households.
19 September 2011, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Végtörlesztés helyett
A rögzített árfolyamon való végtörlesztés helyett a referenciakamathoz való kötés visszamenőleges előírása méltányosabb, jogilag megalapozottabb, és a végtörlesztést forinthitellel kiváltók számára kedvezőbb lenne.
15 September 2011, COLUMN in CNN: Greece: Quo vadis?
A sizeable debt restructuring is Greece’s best option, avoiding decades of official lending while ensuring it stays within the eurozone.
4 September 2011, COLUMN in Világgazdaság (English version): The euro’s last-chance saloon
If pressure on the Italian bond market intensifies, a common euro bond may become the only viable solution.
26 August 2011, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Az euró végső menedéke
Ha a piaci nyomás az olasz kötvénypiacon elhatalmasodik, akkor nemigen marad más választás, mint a közös eurókötvény.
29 June 2011, COLUMN in www.publicserviceeurope.com: ‘Debt socialisation’ might follow Greek crisis
The passing of Greece's austerity package yesterday only bought a little time for Europe – a real crisis could be just around the corner.
12 April 2011, SHORT ARTICLE in European Affairs, The Journal of the European Institute: Debt default by EU governments?
Sovereign debt restructuring looms, but it would not lead to a eurozone breakup.
7 April 2011, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Elsüllyeszthetetlen, akárcsak a Titanic (Unsinkable like the Titanic)
A Titanic párhuzamai figyelmeztetnek: kerüljék a fizetőképességi és likviditási válságok keveredését, és kezeljék a bankok és államok függését.
4 April 2011, COLUMN: Unsinkable like the Titanic
Parallels to the Titanic warn ministers to avoid mixing solvency with liquidity crises and address bank-sovereign interdependence effectively.
10 March 2011, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: EU-csúcs és versenyképesség
A versenyképességi paktum helyett fontosabb lenne az euróövezeti bankrendszer rendbetétele és az államadósság-válság megoldása.
28 February 2011, COLUMN in Voxeu: A comprehensive solution for the euro crisis (co-authored with Jean Pisani-Ferry and Andre Sapir)
Over a year since Greece's debt crisis spread, the Eurozone crisis persists. We propose to fix banks, cut Greek debt, and boost peripheral growth.
2010
25 November 2010, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Szétzilálja-e az eurózónát az adósságválság? (Will the debt crisis tear the eurozone apart?)
A magas kötvényfelárak és az euró-dollár árfolyam vásárlóerő-paritás feletti szintje fizetésképtelenséget jelez, de nem az eurózóna felbomlását.
24 November 2010, COLUMN in Trend.sk: Eurohádanka
Eurozóna rieši vysoké deficity členov, no euro to nevyrušuje
10 November 2010, BLOG POST: The euro conundrum
High bond spreads and a euro-dollar rate above the purchasing power parity equilibrium suggest markets anticipate defaults but not a eurozone breakup.
21 July 2010, BLOG POST: Europe’s role in global imbalances
Premature fiscal consolidation in fiscally sound euro-area countries risks harming recovery, worsening imbalances, and deepening the euro-area crisis.
13 April 2010, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Magyarország 2014-re bevezetheti az eurót erős fiskális stratégiával
Magyarország négy éven belül bevezetheti az eurót, ha a Fidesz elkötelezi magát a hiánykezelés, az IMF-együttműködés és a befektetői bizalom mellett.
15 March 2010, COLUMN in FINANCE – The Executive Magazine for Emerging Europe: Flawed Help
EU support aided crisis-hit emerging Europe, but certain actions and inactions by EU institutions and governments have had notably negative effects.
23 February 2010, COLUMN in Voxeu: Assistance to emerging Europe
The EU aided crisis-hit Central and Eastern Europe, showing solidarity but also causing harm through some actions and failures to act.
21 January 2010, COLUMN in Világgazdaság: Euróövezeti tanulságok (Lessons From the Euro Area)
A görög, ír és spanyol válságok ellenére Magyarország számára előnyös lenne az euróbevezetés, főként a gazdaságpolitika alacsony hitelessége miatt.
2009
10 December 2009, COLUMN in Euractiv.com: The Baltic Misery Needs a Solution
Baltic nations face severe crises; only euroisation offers relief. Euro entry needs reforms to strict convergence criteria amid the financial crisis.
30 August 2009, COLUMN in Alternatives économiques: Après l'euphorie, l'addition
L'intégration dans l'UE a entraîné en Europe centrale un essor de la consommation, de la construction, du crédit... Dans son intérêt et en raison de ses responsabilités, la zone euro doit prêter à ces économies. Et assouplir les critères de Maastricht.
22 July 2009, COLUMN in Voxeu: Treaty change is needed to make sense of euro-area entry criteria
The crisis exposed an asymmetry: fiscal profligacy in euro members vs. austerity in applicants. Reforming entry criteria is now crucial.
12 March 2009, COLUMN in The Wall Street Journal: Eastern European currencies need help now (co-authored with Jean Pisani-Ferry)
Decisive action is needed across six areas to address the crisis in post-communist EU members.
22 January 2009, COLUMN in Voxeu: The looming divide within Europe (co-authored with Jean Pisani-Ferry)
Beyond vulnerabilities, euro-area crisis management has disadvantaged non-euro-area new EU members, risking a political and economic divide in Europe.
2008
10 November 2008, COLUMN in Voxeu: Should the crisis be the trigger for a reshaping of euro-area entry rules?
The Czech and Slovak success vs. Portugal’s struggles highlight the need to consider economic structures and policies when evaluating euro area entry.
28 October 2008, COLUMN in The Guardian: The rise and fall of Hungary
Hungary could adopt the euro soon, shielding against crises, but it may reduce reform incentives. The crisis must spur focus on structural issues.